A broad prohibition is unlikely, but not impossible. Although the Biden medication has made nary denotation that they’ll determination to enforce a TikTok ban, the app is already banned connected authorities devices successful 19 states (18 of which person Republican governors), owed to nationalist information concerns, and a trio of lawmakers introduced legislation successful a bid to enforce a ban. Reports of TikTok employees obtaining journalists’ data, first reported by Forbes were peculiarly damning for TikTok and Chinese genitor institution Bytedance (after conducting its ain probe into the allegations via ineligible counsel, Bytedance fired 4 employees progressive successful the scheme). “I don't deliberation that an outright prohibition is the elevation astir US lawmakers privation to dice on,” says Jasmine Enberg, main analyst, societal media astatine marketplace probe subscription-based institution Emarketer. “But, it's wide that determination is capable enactment to ‘do something’ astir TikTok that it's apt that immoderate benignant of anti-TikTok measurement volition yet pass.” She’d expect a much piecemeal approach, successful the vein of the authorities instrumentality ban, expanding archetypal to different authorities and civic areas.
Permele Doyle, president and co-founder of originative bureau Billion Dollar Boy, says authorities could lucifer the Trump administration’s recommendation: that Bytedance would beryllium forced to merchantability its US operations to an American tech player. “That would correspond a compromise solution and is simply a sensible and pragmatic approach,” she says.
The crux of the imaginable fallout lies with the brands that person built their names connected TikTok. Though an annoyance for larger brands similar Gucci and Louis Vuitton, says societal media advisor and manufacture expert Matt Navarra, the bigger hazard is for the smaller players. “Any state that bans the app means there’s a full state afloat of people, imaginable customers, assemblage members that are not going to beryllium disposable to reach. You’re not going to beryllium capable to people them, you’re not going to beryllium capable to get the engagement connected the level from those customers,” helium says. Given that the US boasted 95.8 cardinal users successful 2022, according to Insider Intelligence, this is simply a ample assemblage for emerging brands to suffer entree to.
It’s atrocious PR, but that doesn’t thin to effect successful a idiosyncratic exodus, says expert Enberg. “Most Facebook users didn’t permission Facebook aft the Cambridge Analytica Scandal.” Analyst Navarra agrees that, though it’s ever a risk, the existent antagonistic PR is improbable to determination the needle connected fashion’s TikTok use. “There’s rather a batch of agelong successful presumption of however atrocious the PR needs to get, earlier determination volition beryllium a driblet successful users,” helium says.